News — ChangeLab

Step by step: the Chinese yuan goes beyond offshore zones

More and more countries and companies are slowly but surely shifting to using the Chinese currency for international payments. According to analysts, this could form the basis for a trading system that competes with that dominated by the U.S. dollar. Although the dollar is still the dominant currency in global trade payments, the steady growth in bilateral transactions involving the RMB in settlements with China indicates that the trend toward doing business in Chinese currency is becoming increasingly popular among partners around the world, from the Middle East to Russia.

So far, the chances of mass use of the RMB in global payments remain low, as China, given expectations, still maintains tight control over the currency and will not weaken it under any circumstances. At the moment, the largest three BRICS exporters and importers (China, Russia and Brazil) are working together to use renminbi for cross-border payments, which could attract other countries and significantly increase the share of renminbi in global settlements, which now stands at 2.2%. However, experts note that China is unwilling to open its accounts to capital and allow the yuan to move freely, as it does with other "convenient" European currencies.

Thus, due to the gradually strengthening position of the yuan on the world stage, many experts got stuck in discussions about the possible victory of the Chinese currency over the dollar. Our team is also divided on this issue. On the one hand, the dollar and euro will continue to be used in global trade, as these currencies are linked to open economies and are available for use. The yuan, on the other hand, is limited in use, and it will take time and a well-established system for use outside of China to become popular. At the same time, it can be understood that China is trying to convert most of its trade transactions with other countries into RMB, which means that the government is already developing a mechanism by which RMB movement outside PRC will be convenient and efficient in the near future.